A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
